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Posted on 12/14/2002 6:16:44 PM PST by SheLion

"...it's literally true that something like a thousand people will not die each year that would have otherwise died..."

— New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, annoucing a sweeping ban on smoking in bars and restaurants, as quoted by the New York Times December 12, 2002

We are delighted that bars, restaurants, and offices in New York City are soon to be smoke-free — although we do question the means (municipal legislation) used to achieve this end. But what we are not delighted with is hyperbole about the alleged health benefits of such a ban.

Who exactly are these 1,000 New Yorkers whose deaths Mayor Bloomberg claims will be prevented by his legislation?

If, as we suspect, he is referring to deaths caused by exposure to secondhand smoke in restaurants and bars, the estimate of 1,000 deaths prevented is patently absurd. Our best estimate of the number of deaths prevented is somewhere between zero and a hypothetical ten to fifteen. There is no evidence that any New Yorker — patron or employee — has ever died as a result of exposure to smoke in a bar or restaurant.

Secondhand smoke is annoying. It makes your clothes and hair stink and can ruin an otherwise delightful dining experience. Regular exposure to someone else's smoking (as from living in the same household as a smoker) can increase the risk of upper respiratory disease, ear infections, and, among other acute effects, asthma attacks. Theoretically, an individual with severe asthma could suffer acute, fatal attack in a smoky bar, thus the hypothetical 10-15 hypothetical deaths indicated on the upper end of our estimates.

The link between secondhand smoke and premature death, however, is a real stretch. The evidence here is far less established than are the acute effects (see the American Council on Science and Health report Environmental Tobacco Smoke: Health Risk or Health Hype? ).

There are some 60,000 deaths annually in the city of New York. Public health officials estimate that one-fifth of these deaths — l2,000 — can be specifically and causally linked to cigarette smoking. Will Mayor Bloomberg's prohibition of smoking in bars and restaurants cause more smoking New Yorkers to kick the habit? Possibly. But even if the Mayor's estimate of 1,000 lives saved referred to deaths prevented among smokers who quit, the number is enormously inflated.

The majority of New Yorkers will welcome a smoking ban primarily for aesthetic reasons, not for health reasons.

Dr. Whelan, President of ACSH, holds doctoral and master's degrees in public health.

Where's my smokin' buddy, Michael ??....

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